NFL Week 11 Picks

Last Week: 3-2 Overall: 27-23

New York Jets minus 1 at Buffalo: Woods and Johnson are both out for Buffalo and Manuel looked bad next week. Jets win 20-17 unless Geno gives it away.

Washington plus 4.5 at Philadelphia: Philly doesn’t win at home. Washington has had a long week with extra time to prepare. They fought back in the second half of the first matchup and the offense last week was fine. Desperation mode brings out a win for the ‘Skins 31-28.

San Francisco plus 3 at New Orleans: The 49ers looked bad at home last week so what better time to go on the road against a team Kaepernick plays well against? Niners behind Kap win 34-31.

Denver minus 7.5 v Kansas City. Primetime game in Denver brings out the best in Peyton. I don’t think this is close. Denver 34-13.

Jacksonville plus 8 v Arizona: Second week in a row I’m going with the Jags but what makes you trust Arizona on the road? Cardinals win 23-17.


NFL Week 10 Picks

Last Week: 4-1 Overall: 24-21

Jacksonville plus 13 at Tennessee. The Jags have lost every game by double digits but hey, if they lose by 10, they cover. Tennessee 24-14

Pittsburgh minus 3 v. Buffalo. E.J. Manuel is back but has been out for several weeks and the Steelers are a desperate team at home. Steelers beat rookie QB’s. Pittsburgh 30-23.

Cincinnati minus 1.5 at Baltimore. Traditionally, the Bengals struggle on the road and Baltimore dominates at home but Baltimore is just bad right now. Ray Rice can’t run and Flacco passes very well to the opposing team. I think the Bengals will have just enough, 20-17.

Carolina plus 6 at San Francisco. This was a tough game to pick but Carolina has a defense now. Newton will make enough plays to keep this one tight. S.F. wins 27-24

Indianapolis minus 9.5 v St. Louis. The Colts are at home coming off of a poor performance and the Rams still don’t have a quarterback. The only way the Colts don’t perform well is if Zac Stacy wins it by himself but he is banged up and questionable. Colts 28-13.

NFL Week 7 Picks

Last Week: 2-3 Overall: 14-16

Kansas City minus 6.5 v Houston: I’ve bet on Kansas City often and it has been very successful this season. Case Keenum will make his first career start and Case Keenum is not an NFL quarterback. Besides, Kansas City’s defense is one of the best in the NFL, especially at home. Chiefs win 24-10.

Dallas plus 3 at Philadelphia: Dallas is not the same on the road and Murray is out but the Eagles defense is terrible and Nick Foles loses more often than not when he doesn’t start against Tampa Bay.  Dallas 28-27

New England minus 3.5 at NY Jets: The Jets did not score a touchdown at home last week and their receiving score is still beleaguered by injuries. Gronk is back and that will serve at the very least as a decoy for Tom Brady and a group of wideouts who are progressing. Patriots 31-17

Pittsburgh minus 2 v Baltimore: This is a tough game to pick but Baltimore is not a good road team. The Steelers have some confidence from finally winning last week and the defense should be able to get to Flacco. Steelers win ugly 23-19.

New York Giants minus 3.5 v Minnesota: Freeman is making  his debut and the Giants have had 10 days to prepare for this home game. The giants finally remove the goose egg in the win column 27-13.

NFL Week 5 Picks

Tough week last week thanks to Houston.

Last Week: 2-3 Overall: 10-10

Kansas City minus 3 at Tennessee: This is solely for the opportunity to bet against Ryan Fitzpatrick.  23-16

Jacksonville plus 11.5 at St. Louis. I know it’s Jacksonville but they have to win once right? St. Louis is not great offensively. Rams win 20-13

Chicago plus 1 vs New Orleans. Saints are coming off of a short week and they think they’re good. Chicago the complete opposite after giving up 40 to Detroit. The NFL is funny this way…bet on Chicago. Bears win 27-24 OT

San Fran minus 6 v. Houston. A long time to prepare for Harbaugh and the troops. Home game in primetime usually favors the Niners. S.F. wins 31-17

Atlanta minus 10 v. NY Jets. The Jets and especially Geno Smith are terrible. Take the Falcons at home who are DESPERATE to win. Falcons 34-10.

NFL Week 4 Picks

Last Week’s Record: 3-2  Overall Record: 8-7

Over .500…not bad.

Pittsburgh minus 2.5 at Minnesota (London) Matt Cassel is seemingly an upgrade over Christian Ponder but he is turnover prone and, believe it or not, Minnesota’s problem is not offense. They have been scoring points, their defense is the issue. The Steelers problem is their offense and I think this week is a perfect matchup to change their fortunes a little bit. Steelers win 24-13

Houston plus 2.5 v. Seattle – Some regard Seattle as the best team in the league but Houston needs this game coming off of a road blowout in Baltimore and Seattle is a different team on the road. I like Houston 23-17

Washington minus 3.5 at Oakland – Never trust an 0-3 road favorite but I think Washington will finally have a satisfactory matchup for thieir awful defense. Raiders are unsure of Pryor’s concussion health and McFadden has been as entertaining as Run DMC’s current rap skills. Washington 27-19.

Denver minus 11 v Philly Denver is 3-0 against the spread so far and the line is high but Philly just can’t stop anyone. I would not be shocked if they cover however because they can score but Denver can so easily win by three scores against any opponent than even money says Denver covers again this week at altitude. Denver 45-28

Atlanta minus 2 v New England: Gronkowski is not expected to play and Wes Welker is still playing for Denver so the Patriots are weapon-challenged. Ridley has been awful and Amendola is also on the shelf. This is a primetime game which usually favors New England but Atlanta is tough at home, especially coming off of a loss, and with the Saints undefeated the Falcons cannot afford to lose this game. Atlanta wins 30-27.

NFL Week 3 Picks

Last Week: 3-2 Overall: 5-5

Philadelphia minus 3 v Kansas City. The Philadelphia Eagles spoiled their own home opener by not covering…anyone! The Kansas City Chiefs are a more balanced and limited offensive attack that will not be able to throw for 300 plus yards with Alex Smith at the helm. As long as Jamaal Charles doesn’t break off large runs and Michael Vick remains upright, the Eagles will win this one 31-23.

Minnesota minus 6.5 v. Cleveland. Goodbye Trent Richardson, hello Brian Hoyer. The Cleveland Browns offensive situation is offensive. They have a good defense but Peterson alone should be able to outscore the Browns. Minnesota Vikings 21-10.

New Orleans minus 7.5 v. Arizona. The Arizona Cardinals won last week. Chances are that lowers the probability of that event recurring this Sunday. New Orleans Saints are tough at home and the offense is yet to show its signature breakout ability and I think that will be showcased this week against the Cardinals. Saints win 45-24.

Baltimore plus 3 v. Houston. No Ray Rice? No problem. The Houston Texans could easily be 0-2 and so could the Baltimore Ravens, but I like Baltimore at home to eke this one out. Torrey Smith has a breakout game and the hampered abilities of Arian Foster lead to offensive stagnation for the Texans. Ravens 20-16.

Seattle minus 19.5 v Jacksonville. TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW. Oh wait, not yet. The Jacksonville Jaguars are pathetic, Maurice Jones-Drew is hurt and Blaine Gabbert is out (which might make this bet worse). The Seattle Seahawks are true birds of prey at home and will set up scores with their defense and Russel Wilson, along with Beastmode Marshawn Lynch will contribute to a blowout. Seattle 38-3

NFL Week 1 Picks

Here are five picks for Week 1 against the spread. Also, I will add a survivor pick.

New England minus 10 at Buffalo-I know that New England’s offense is largely unknown without their murderous (had to) duo at Tight End, but the Bills under E.J. Manuel still can’t stop the run. I think Patriots win 31-17.

Tampa Bay minus 3.5 at New York Jets-This is simple, bet against Geno Smith. The fact that the Jets are at home could work against them considering their general disdain for mediocrity in spite of experiencing it for 50 years. Tampa 21 New York 13.

Cleveland minus 1.5 v. Miami. This is a tough week one task for the Dolphins to open on the road against a decent defense. With some new parts to fit in on offense and facing a more confident, experienced Brandon Weeden the Browns take this 23 19.

Oakland plus 10.5 at Indianapolis. I’m not sure why people are so high on Indianapolis entering the season. New OC, questions at running back, and still a mid-tier defense. The large unknown in this game is Terrelle Pryor. I think with all big, mobile QB’s the adjustment their opponents must make is under-appreciated. Colts win 27 20 and Oakland covers.

Seattle minus 3 at Carolina. Despite the cross country trip, Seattle will look to continue last  year’s momentum against Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. Wilson can play mistake free football and Lynch can carve up this opposing D and Seattle rolls 24 17.

I don’t like taking 4 road teams in the NFL, however, Week 1 is the time to do it considering what we don’t know certainly outweighs what we do know.

Survivor Pick: Pittsburgh